Social Survey Highlights Scale of Decline in the Ukraine
- New Europe Investor
- July 14, 2015
The recent events in Greece have overshadowed the economic crisis in the Ukraine.
There is little doubt that the situation in the Ukraine is far more acute with the country experiencing a growing humanitarian crisis. The United Nations World Food Programme said at the beginning of the month that it will step up its operation in the east of the country with further food assistance.
It is now estimated that at least 1.3 million people have been displaced as a result of the conflict with Russian separatist rebels.
GDP contraction in the Ukraine for 2015 was recently revised from 5.5% to 9% by the IMF with the time until recovery lengthened. In their report, they also suggested inflation could be 46% in the country by the end of the year.
First quarter government statistics for 2015 saw contraction in the Ukraine at 17.6% compared to the same period last year.
The IMF are currently working with the country on a $17.5 billion loan package, in exchange for painful economic and structural reforms. Another $2.5 tranche is due to be announced in the coming days with an IMF team currently working with the government in Kiev.
The economic statistics are also reflected in a survey recently conducted by TNS in the country.
In its conclusions, the country’s middle class is rapidly declining with the number of people who cannot afford basic household items increasing dramatically. More alarmingly, the number of people who do not have enough money for food has increased to 6% from only 1% at the end of 2013.
On a more general level, the number of people who put their position in society as low, has increased from 17% in 2013 to 25% this year.
Many Ukrainians are emigrating for Russia, Poland and other neighbouring countries in search of employment and stability.